iPhone12 won't spur a massive Upgrade - here's why

iPhone12 won't spur a massive Upgrade - here's why

With the addition of 5G and a rumored new design, the iPhone 12 is one of the most anticipated phones in years. But will it lead to a so-called "super cycle" of upgrades, as some have predicted?

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told CNN that "iPhone 12 represents the most significant product cycle for (Apple CEO Tim) Cook since the iPhone 6 in 2014." He added that Wall Street is "underestimating the massive pent-up demand around this super cycle for Apple."

Ives is very bullish on Apple's prospects, estimating that a whopping 350 million of the 950 million iPhones on the market could be upgraded within the next 12 to 18 months.

Other analysts say not so fast. And they downplay the importance of 5G as a factor driving iPhone upgrades among consumers. Furthermore, the pandemic is still ongoing and taking a heavy toll on the economy.

"There are no doubt many consumers who forewent upgrading last year in anticipation of Apple launching a 5G iPhone this year," says Avi Greengart, principal analyst at Techsponential. But I don't think anyone can reliably predict iPhone sales in 2020." The economic hit from the global pandemic has depressed demand."

And then there is the issue of 5G. Yes, deployment is accelerating, but 5G will not be deployed nationwide across the three major carriers this fall. So far, T-Mobile has the widest footprint, with AT&T and Verizon catching up.

And while 5G is an important feature if you want to have a future-proof phone, there is no killer application yet. It simply means faster download speeds and less latency for things like streaming games.

"I think iPhone 12 will drive upgrades," says Creative Strategies analyst Carolina Milanesi. 'But unless something more than 5G comes out, I don't see a supercycle happening. For most consumers, 5G is not yet a must-have."

"For most consumers, 5G is not yet a must-have.

According to leaked information, there are other exciting upgrades to the iPhone 12. There should be four models this time around, including the new compact 5.4-inch iPhone 12, which should be the most affordable of the four. The price could be around $649 based on previous reports.

All four iPhone 12 models are expected to feature the new A14 Bionic chip, which is fast enough to blow away Android phones, and all four models will have OLED displays. 5.4-inch iPhone 12 and 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Max will two cameras, while the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max will reportedly have a third camera (telephoto) and a LiDAR sensor for better AR performance.

However, it remains to be determined if the iPhone 12 Pro will feature a smooth 120 Hz display. The latest rumors have poured cold water on that possibility.

Phone shoppers generally tend to care about core features such as screen size, quality, and battery life, and Apple's A14 Bionic chip could really help with the latter. According to previous leaks, this new 5nm chip could be 30% more efficient than the A13.

However, I don't expect 5G to be a major purchase driver for the iPhone 12 this October.

"In most countries around the world, 5G networks are still in their infancy. I expect Apple to launch 4G-only iPhone configurations, segmented by price and region."

Wedbush's Ives also predicts that a low-cost 4G-only iPhone 12 will hit the market early next year. And we have heard that rumor from other sources as well.

Earlier rumors pointed to a possible starting price of $549 for the 4G iPhone 12. Ives, however, has said that this model will be around $800. This means that it could be a lower-priced version of the iPhone 12 Max or iPhone 12 Pro.

Assuming the economy continues to struggle, the best budget phones like the $349 Pixel 4a and $399 iPhone SE may become even more attractive. They are proving that you can get most of the features you need for less money than you think.

Thus, the 4G iPhone 12 may be the key to attracting customers who simply do not believe the 5G hype.

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