Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip 3 looks on paper like a mere sequel and is clearly not as powerful as the rumored Galaxy Z Fold 3. But the Z Flip 3 should be a much bigger deal for Samsung.

In fact, the fate of the new Z-Flip is arguably more important than the upcoming iPhone 13 in terms of what is at stake, both for Samsung and for the foldable phone category as a whole.

It would be no exaggeration to say that a lot is riding on the launch of the Galaxy Z Flip 3. And Samsung needs a hit right now, given the reported struggles it is facing with the Galaxy S21 series.

Just this week, Counterpoint Research reported that Xiaomi has overtaken Samsung to become the world's largest smartphone vendor for the first time. Xiaomi was first with 17.1%, Samsung was second with 15.7%, and Apple was third with 14.3%.

Meanwhile, according to a report in South Korea's The Elec, Samsung is extending a management review of its mobile business following the surprisingly low sales of its Galaxy S21 series, which reportedly sold only 13.5 million units in the first half. Compare that to the mid-20 million units of the Galaxy S20 and more than 30 million units of the Galaxy S before it.

This is supposedly a special review "conducted without warning when top management believes there is a problem with a particular business unit."

With Samsung's Unpacked 2021 event coming up on August 11, much depends on the success or failure of the Galaxy Z Flip 3, which is positioned as a more mainstream and affordable foldable phone. In fact, reports have pointed to a significant price drop for the Flip, with earlier leaks saying the Flip 3 could go as low as $999.

The Galaxy Z Flip 3 is also rumored to offer a larger external display, a waterproof and more durable design, and more apps with Flex mode available.

With Samsung positioning folding phones as the future, the Z Flip 3 cannot fail. If consumers simply decide they don't want a clamshell foldable, Samsung may have to rethink its overall strategy for the category.

Meanwhile, Apple is reportedly ramping up production of the iPhone 13 and is said to expect even more demand than for the iPhone 12. According to a previous Bloomberg report, Apple is producing 90 million iPhone 13 units by the end of the year, which is a 20% increase over 2020.

However, looking at the actual rumors, it is easy to see why some are calling the iPhone 13 the iPhone 12s. The design is expected to be nearly identical, except for the smaller notch. And most of the upgrades, from the faster and more efficient A15 Bionic chip to the new portrait video mode and astrophotography features, appear to be internal.

The iPhone 13 Pro series looks like a bigger deal, as both the Pro and Pro Max are said to feature 120Hz displays with always-on mode.

However, even with the iPhone 13 hype, Apple seems to be in a better position to weather its dull reputation than Samsung. According to Apple's latest financial results, iPhone sales are up 65.5% year over year, services are up 26.7%, Macs are up 70%, and iPads are up 78.9%, with virtually all segments performing well.

With the Galaxy Z Flip 3, Samsung needs to start proving that the money it has been pouring into folding devices has been stacked toward something more than just a novelty.

That is, at a time when the Galaxy S21 appears to be struggling. Samsung can't see the Galaxy Z Flip 3 being ignored by shoppers, even if the more powerful Galaxy S22 arrives early next year. Otherwise, Samsung may have to abandon its foldable push and move on to something else.