While a fourth stimulus package (or similar additional easing) has not been ruled out entirely, there is a major reason why it may not: a fourth stimulus package may not be necessary.

Some conservative analysts and state officials have suggested that further direct benefits or unemployment payments could exacerbate existing labor shortages in a variety of industries, including restaurants and manufacturing. What are their arguments? Additional assistance may discourage workers from returning to lower-wage jobs.

Republican governors in 22 states have stopped accepting the $300 weekly federal unemployment benefit supplement, even though the program is supposed to run through September. State governors have cited labor shortages as one of the reasons for terminating unemployment benefits. Business owners also blame federal subsidies for stagnant hiring.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has shared this concern with Congress.

"People actually have a lot of money and don't particularly want to go back to work," he told members of the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing last week (May 27).

Unemployment benefits, however, may not be the direct cause of labor shortages in low-wage jobs. One survey found that one in seven workers stay home to supplement their unemployment benefits, but some economists say that federal assistance may not be the main reason people are not returning to work. [Joseph Vavra, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, told CNN, "My guess is that $300 does have an effect of reducing the work ethic, but not by much. But there is a lot of uncertainty because I don't think we have good data."

For some Americans, unemployment benefits are not the reason they stay home. It's because of pre-existing conditions or lack of child care: more than 7 million adults report that they are having trouble finding child care for their children who are not in school or day care, with child care facilities closing or relocating to remote areas.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has called the worker shortage a crisis and has made getting people back to work a top priority with an initiative called "America Works." The plan proposes to create more public-private partnerships and addresses affordable childcare.

The real issue, however, will be wages. Low (and stagnant) wages may discourage people from returning to work in warehouses, restaurants, and retail stores.

The Biden administration earlier this year proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, but this provision did not move forward. Some companies have announced plans to raise the wage to $15 an hour (or more), but this would affect only a small percentage of employees nationwide.