Editor's Note: It turns out that our guesses were quite correct. Three months after this article was posted, Apple decided to hold a product event on September 14. iPhone13 is a pretty safe bet to be on the agenda.

The pieces of the iPhone13 are starting to come together, with Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference just a little over a week away. That iPhone software update is set to appear in the fall along with the iPhone 13, and over the next few months, the same question will be asked more and more frequently: when will the iPhone 13 be released?

And the short answer is that we don't know. Apple keeps a pretty tight lid on when and how the product will be released, keeping launch details under wraps until the last possible moment. Therefore, anyone who can tell us when the iPhone 13 will be released is really just guessing at this point.

But the good news is that we can guess too. The basis for that guess is that we have seen how Apple has handled cell phone launches over the years.

Apple's fairly predictable approach to iPhone releases was overturned by last year's coronavirus outbreak, forcing Apple not only to postpone the iPhone 12 launch event, but also to roll out different models in stages. Rumors suggest that Apple is trying to return to its normal approach to the iPhone 13 launch. At least, that is the plan for now.

Based on Apple's past approach to new models, let's take a closer look at when the iPhone 13 will ship.

Given that Apple's iPhone 12 plans were somewhat overturned by last year's coronavirus pandemic, it's worth checking out the rumors to see how this year's iPhone 13 is progressing. Especially considering that the global chip shortage is having a major impact on the consumer electronics industry.

You are probably aware that chip shortages have caused products like the PS5 and Xbox Series X gaming consoles to be in and out of stock, but the chip problems are not limited to those currently on sale. Samsung, for example, is said to be canceling its new Galaxy Note phablet this year due to chip shortages.

Apple may not remain unscathed from this shortage either. Reports suggest that the iPad and iMac lineups may be hit by the delay. However, the iPhone 13 appears to be well on its way. According to a new report, the A15 Bionic chip in the new iPhone 13 has just started production. It is a situation that needs monitoring, but so far we have not heard anything to suggest that the iPhone 13 will not arrive during Apple's usual fall window for phone launches.

To better understand how Apple is handling the iPhone launch, it helps to go back in time and see when Apple announced new phones and when those phones actually hit the market. Below is Apple's iPhone release schedule going back seven years.

This graph reveals several things. Except for last year's postponement due to the coronavirus, Apple likes to release its phones in September. In fact, until last year, the last time Apple did not announce a new iPhone in September was 2011, when the iPhone 4s debuted on October 4. By announcing in September, Apple gets enough time to build both buzz and inventory for the holiday shopping season .

Another thing you may have noticed is that Apple generally prefers to ship all iPhone models at once. That hasn't happened much in recent years; besides last year's staggered launch, the 2018 iPhone XR and 2017 iPhone X shipped later than those. However, as long as there are no production line issues, Apple prefers to have all three iPhone 11 models in stores at the same time, which it did in 2019.

Putting all these data together, it is hard not to reach some conclusions.

Therefore, if we were to speculate on this year's event, we would expect Apple to announce the iPhone 13 either the week of September 5 or the week of September 12. The week of September 6 is scheduled because Labor Day and Rosh Hashana fall on the following day. There is a possibility of overlap. Rather than avoid these events, we expect Apple to settle on Tuesday, September 14 as the most likely date to hold an iPhone 13 event the week of September 12.

If that is the case, and if Apple adheres to its usual schedule of releasing the new iPhone 10 days after its announcement, iPhone pre-orders are expected to begin around September 17, with the iPhone 13 release date on September 24. If Apple decides to release the iPhone 13, iPhone 13 mini, and iPhone 13 Pro at different times, all bets are off.

As summer progresses, we can expect to hear more specific rumors about the timing of the iPhone 13. In particular, be wary of leaks emanating from wireless carriers. They need to plan for a big phone launch in the fall, and invariably details of that launch will leak out. Apple's always chatty supply chain is also a good source of rumors about upcoming hardware launches.

But until more details emerge, feel free to draw circles around the September 14 date of the iPhone 13 unveiling. For now, however, we'd like you to use a pencil to draw the circle.