With the Apple Watch Ultra wearables released in 2022 and 2023, it appeared that Apple was headed for the same annual release schedule as numbered iPhones and non-Ultra wearables.

However, two releases are fairly limited data points from which to draw that conclusion, and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes there is currently no evidence that Apple is planning an Ultra 3 release in 2024.

"As of now, Apple has not yet officially started development of the Apple Watch Ultra 3," the analyst wrote on his Medium blog." This is unusual given the product development timeline."

Assuming his information is correct, he believes there is still a small window left for Apple to begin development for a release next year. He says, "If Apple doesn't officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it's almost certain that we won't see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024.

Why wouldn't Apple release a new Ultra in 2024? Kuo suggests that more time is needed to develop "innovative health management features" and address issues related to the Micro LED screen that he notes will be on the wearable.

The Micro LED rumor is one we have heard before from analysts Ross Young and Jeff Pu, Bloomberg, and most recently from Weibo leaker Setsuna Digital. Such screen technology could be significantly brighter and potentially more power efficient, thus extending battery life.

On the one hand, this makes sense. The recent Apple Watch Ultra 2 was a fairly minor upgrade, introducing a faster chip, brighter screen, and double-tap controls, but was otherwise unchanged from the original.

But on the other hand, will Apple really not release a new Ultra model in 2024, the 10th anniversary of Tim Cook's introduction of the original Apple Watch at the September 2014 iPhone 6 event?

After all, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has already stated that Apple is planning big things for the Apple Watch X, including a new design with a thinner casing to mark the wearable's 10th anniversary.

But there is a crucial asterisk in that commemoration. While the original Apple Watch was announced in September 2014, it wasn't actually available for purchase until the following April. This means that the 10th anniversary of the Apple Watch would be in 2024 or 2025, depending on where you measure it from. Garman himself hedges his bets that the Watch X will be revamped either next year or the year after.

This raises an interesting question about the traditional Apple Watch numbering (will it be 10 next year and a limited edition "X" in 2025, or will there be an "11" with the "X"?), but nothing that cannot be avoided. For now, if you're interested in buying an Apple Watch Ultra, there seems little point in holding out until next year.